The AI Wasteland of 2030
In the glittering dawn of the AI revolution, businesses across the globe rush to integrate artificial intelligence into every conceivable process. From pricing algorithms to chatbots, automated recruiting to web content generation, the potential seems limitless. The hype is that by 2030, AI will have made business smarter, faster, leaner and someone (well, shareholders and billionaires at least) will be banking major coin as a result. Or perhaps not..
Perhaps in the real business world things will be a tad more prosaic. Perhaps, as we approach 2030, the landscape will have shifted dramatically. What was once a field of innovation and boundless promise is now littered with abandoned AI systems, barely functional algorithms, and a pervasive sense of disillusionment. Welcome to the “AI Wasteland!”
The Fall from Grace
Will the story of AI be a classic tale of over-promising and under-delivering? We already see the market saturated with AI solutions and consultants. Every company, from startups to conglomerates, is being lured into automating processes with AI or die. Sales forecasts, hiring decisions, customer service—all are being entrusted to machines. At first, it works well enough to justify the investment. But as time passes, the cracks began to show.
- Knowledge Decay: Over time, the teams that built these systems move on, and the people left behind lack the expertise to maintain them. Documentation is sparse, AI systems are inherently opaque, and the once-shiny algorithms become black boxes no one dares to touch.
- Complexity Explosion: the rush to automate imperfect business processes with AI reveal their flaws as solutions are scaled. Predictions became unreliable, biases crept in unchecked, and models failed to adapt to real-world changes. A game of AI whack-a-mole ensues, and before long the business finds itself running on a tangled web of AI point solutions, the complexity of which is beyond any single employee. AI systems have turned into liabilities rather than assets.
- No Free Lunch (FO): As AI providers start being forced to price their services above cost, the ROI calculations start to look decidedly grim. Data storage, computing power, and constant retraining drains budgets. Meanwhile, the economic gains AI promised never materialize at scale.
Welcome to the AI Wasteland of 2030: Ghosts of AI Past
2030: the corporate world is haunted by the remnants of this AI gold rush. In offices everywhere, non-functioning chatbots offer glitchy apologies. Automated hiring systems churn out nonsensical candidate rankings. Predictive analytics tools remain plugged in, spewing irrelevant reports that no one reads.
The AI wasteland isn’t just physical; it’s cultural. Employees have grown weary of poorly implemented tools, customers are fed up with dehumanized interactions, and leaders have stopped believing in the transformative power of AI. The term “AI fatigue” has entered the corporate lexicon—a collective acknowledgment of the exhaustion stemming from chasing a dream that didn’t deliver.
So by 2030, disillusioned executives are wanting to pull the plug on AI. But for many, this is easier said than done. They no longer have the staff or institutional knowledge to “just rollback to pre-AI”. Stuck between a rock and a hard place, businesses fail.
Lessons Unlearned
As the industry surveys the wreckage, there’s little agreement on how to proceed. Some advocate for a return to basics, emphasizing human-led decision-making supported by simpler tools. Others believe AI can be salvaged, but only with stricter regulation, better education, and a cultural shift toward long-term thinking.
For now, though, the AI wasteland serves as a grim reminder of what happens when hype outpaces reality. Automation’s shine has worn off, and the stench of failure lingers. It’s a cautionary tale for those who dream too big without planning for the future—or understanding the past.
Future fact or fiction?
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Oppression
I can’t pinpoint exactly where it comes from, but somewhere along the way I’ve internalised a core value of “siding with the underdog”. Anti-Thatcherite Britain? Aussie tall-poppy syndrome? Catholic public school? Perhaps a mix of all these and more. I was recently introduced to the following quote from Periyar Erode Venkatappa Ramasamy that is I think a perfect formulation of the idea:
If a larger country oppresses a smaller country, I’ll stand with the smaller country.
If the smaller country has majoritarian religion that oppresses minority religions, I’ll stand with minority religions.
If the minority religion has caste and one caste oppresses another caste, I’ll stand with the caste being oppressed.
In the oppressed caste, if an employer oppresses his employee, I’ll stand with the employee.
If employee goes home and oppresses his wife, I’ll stand with that woman.
Overall, oppression is my enemy.
- Thanthai Periyar E. V. Ramasamy (17 Sep, 1879 – 24 Dec, 1973)
Looking back now, I can see how this quote made the rounds on social media over the past few years, but I haven’t yet found a primary source to cite. This may be me running into a language barrier, as I presume his original words were probably in Tamil.
Nevertheless, it explains why my first instincts in all modern conflicts have been right .. IMHO!
And why I think that UN Security Council reform is essential to preserve and improve the prospect for all peoples to enjoy peace and security.
Until now, I thought that was a pipe dream, as who could imaging the US giving up its veto power? But now I see a rising chorus of people calling for reform
Kishore Mahbubani has argued in the Financial Times that “UN credibility depends on adjusting veto rights to match shift in global power” .. including quite provocatively suggesting the poetic justice if the UK were to cede its UNSC seat in favour of India.
And everyone seems to be calling for reform at the UN Security Council Open Debate on Leadership for Peace…
- Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Dr Vivian Balakrishnan has called to “constrain the exercise of the veto”
- French President Emmanuel Macron has “suggested that the UN Security Council limit veto power”
- even the US Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield echoed the need for reform .. but of course without mentioning veto powers; no surprise there.
- But most significantly, I think Finland’s President Alexander Stubb may have punched a winning ticket by calling for expansion of the U.N. Security Council, abolition of its single state veto power, and suspension of any member engaging in an “illegal war”.
Please, no to the veto!
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2024 Rails Survey Surprises?
The results of the 2024 Ruby on Rails Community Survey are out. Are there any surprises? For me: nothing earth -shattering. But that in itself may be the surprise, as the results show a re-invigorated community that is perhaps stronger than it has been in years.
While the demographics imply that the community is still maturing, it is growing enough to replace those that “aged out” around the 13 year mark.
Interestingly, the exodus of Ruby/Rails devs around 13 years ago (2011-2012) was just at the time when node.js, go and rust were starting to break though. Coincidence? I think not!
See the full results at https://railsdeveloper.com/survey/2024/. To be honest, nothing particularly unexpected, just solid confirmation that Rails appears to be back on a on a very healthy track.
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The Planes of Imperial Japan
The Planes of Imperial Japan is a little project I made while waiting for a plane at Haneda Airport back in 2023.
I wanted a way to quickly lookup Japanese planes from the second world war and get a basic summary with pictures and links to more information .. including a link to scalemates if you are looking for scale models;-)
Sources are available on GitHub, click through for more information..
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